After I published the US needs a high level coach, a great discussion ensued in the comments.
Today I want to focus on a particular topic that arose. Specifically, is it difficult to identify an elite player? And if so, why?
The answer is quite involved, but I will offer a good starting point. At one end of the spectrum you have a rare minority who “just see it”. On the other end, you have the vast majority who don’t.
It really does seem to be bi-modal, without much of a middle ground.
The reason being that high-level player identification is an art. There are no checklists one can go through – there are, but they can’t do the job.
For the vast majority it is extremely difficult
This is because there are no objective measures that clearly distinguish one player’s quality over another. And even if we came up with a set of metrics; American soccer, in its entirety, is not instrumented to record these “stats”.
But beyond the numbers, we have been saying for a year now that the two dominant factors in identifying elite players are Technical Quality & Soccer IQ. You can’t quantify these things.
How do you quantify the smoothness, the fluidity, the exquisite way a player caresses the ball? And make no mistake, these things matter. They are not simply superfluous aesthetics, but rather evidence of a player’s total control and mastery of the ball.
Perhaps even more difficult; how do you quantify a player’s decision making?
These questions are mathematically intractable. As such, we must rely on our judgment. You see it is a “pattern matching” / “pattern recognition” problem. And the human brain is the best instrument for this.
Why judgments differ
The game and hence players are perceived differently by different people. What distinguishes these perceptions is the foundation of your soccer education. That is, what are the core principles and philosophies that you have come to accept as truths about the game? It is these core ideas upon which all your conclusions come from. Anything from identifying a quality player, judging a coach, or analyzing a game to making real-time judgments during a match.
And there is no thorough and concrete checklist your brain consciously goes through to make a judgment. Instead, one sees a pattern. A pattern, again, which is a direct function of your core truths. So person A may see very different patterns, and hence have very different conclusions than person B.
This begs the question: What are the better core principles or philosophies?
This is where I become baffled and frankly disgusted by those governing American soccer. Why? Because the answer is quite simple actually. The world has shown us. All the great teams and world class player producing countries have shown us the model for decades. We have examples year after year of what players have supreme Technical Quality and Soccer IQ.
There are many attributes these players have in common and they should all be studied under the microscope. But you know what the most fundamental thing is? They can retain possession far better than their colleagues. That is the starting point. That is a core principle.
If this is not one of yours, just understand that you are not aligned with world class teams and players. And I contend as a result, the patterns you see and hence conclusions you make are fundamentally flawed.
And so here we are. We live in a country where this is not a core principle. Instead one of our core principles is size, strength, and speed. Another one we are heavily dependent on are strictly objective measures: goals, assists, games started, minutes played, what pedigree you have, etc. These are not fundamental indicators of Technical Quality and Soccer IQ.
There are many reasons why these ideas have become so deeply ingrained in our soccer culture. But that’s a whole other discussion.
For now, what do you think? How do you make judgments? Can your brain instantly recognize after just a handful of touches, or just one game, whether a player has technical quality? What about Soccer IQ? Do you find yourself looking to measurable properties to decide?
Ability to possess the ball is clearly a marker. I try to watch what happens after a given player moves the ball on; does his decision improve his team’s chances or hurt them? Is there a bit of flair or unpredictability to what he does with the ball? I don’t need to see anything flashy, it just needs to be the slightest bit unexpected. If a player is constantly running at his opponent, I tune out. He’s just trying to muscle his way in. I’d rather see someone solve the problem with a pass or feint than just trying to bullrush someone.
The ball has no lungs.
Yep.
“Does his decision improve his team’s chances or hurt them”.
Definitely the right thing to look for, but subject to interpretation.
A simple example:
A defender chooses to bypass the midfield and launches a ball forward.
*** This is classic Americana at all levels***
Obviously the numerous circumstances of the game must be taken into account to determine whether he improved or hurt his team’s chances. But just to throw a number out there … this is the wrong thing to do 9 times out of 10.
However in my experience, a lot of people still learning the game will get excited and applaud such a decision.
They’ll also get excited and applaud the guy who “tries to muscle his way in”.
Thanks for the comment DaveyNC
Arsene Wenger relies quite heavily on statistics, so clearly statistical analysis and fluid, beautiful soccer are not incompatible.
Really? Heavily?
Do you have some sources? I’d be interested to check them out …
Indeed; here’s a relatively old article on the subject: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/columnists/matt_dickinson/article3479458.ece
Thanks for sharing that excellent article dth!
There’s been a trend where more and more professional clubs are licensing Prozone’s software to track a miriad of stats.
But we need to stay on point and keep things in context. We are talking about the identification of elite players at all levels and trying to educate the soccer populace on what they should be focusing on. The general american who is involved in soccer – be it fan, coach, scout, or player – does not have a comprehensive analytics suite to perform evaluations with.
What they might be capable of (ie goals, assists, minutes played, etc) is too crude and can not capture the subtleties (like Wenger’s examples). Therefore people should not be reliant on such metrics – they can be very misleading.
Indeed, and as Wenger’s thoughts illustrate:
Context is King!
And the context in which you choose to interpret the numbers with, is a function of your soccer philosophy and core truths as I describe above.
… and it all starts with a players capacity to retain possession. Once one understands that, you can then start building in more subtleties.
So much to write about 🙂
I have a son that plays , he is on the small side , he is very technical , very high iq for situations in soccer , not the fastest ………… For me he is a good player , from my understanding of soccer , but I’m also his father . I’ve taken him to different places to tryout , even his own coach , all sound the same , yea , he lacks speed and strength ……….. I feel like giving up sometimes , but I’ll go to a game and see him juke a player , do a nutmeg , dribble through and put a pass for gol and it was all worth it . How do I stay focussed on taking him and growing and waiting for somebody to give him the chance , and see what I see ????? One coach , teacher , proffessor I like is Rafa Moran , and what do you think about him ????Any coaches clubs you recomend in the north area , glendale , burbank , la canyada , valley area ?????
Hi el millo!
Well, I’ll start out by saying the most important thing:
Rafa is EXCELLENT!!!
He is one of only a handful of guys in all of So Cal who truly knows the game and how to teach it! I completely recommend him without reservation.
How old is your son?
If he’s in his formative years (where his technique begins to be forged), you can take some comfort in the knowledge that no coach (especially with only 2 team sessions a week) has much influence over developing excellent technical ability. This is usually completely up to the player by living with the ball for hours every day – for years – and trying to mimic world class players. That’s what he should be doing. And there’s where you can provide a nudge.
If your son develops his technique, then when his body matures he will get recognized far more than what you currently describe. I can only imagine how hard it is on you, but in this respect, patience is in order.
If possible, please get your son trained by Rafa.
I wish I could endorse somebody else, but as you said all the others pretty much sound the same.
Please keep me updated … you can always email me at gary [at] 3four3 [dot] com.
Wanted to add a new category or term to soccer statistics at any level to further some of ideas , discussion, and measurement about picking and developing elite players . This new stat related to ball control , possession, and a players experience and soccer IQ. Feel it correlates as much as any stat in determining outcome of score on pitch. Refer to it as NIPPs…..standing for NON INTENT POSSESIONS or PASSES. NIPPs similar to term turnovers in basketball or football. It can be applied to any player on field and indicates how player is handling pressure, maintaining ball control and contributing to the shape and flow of team. NIPPs occur when player loses possession of ball by poor passing , lack of ball control , poor touch or strike, or lacking understanding of game strategy that contributes to the offensive or defensive reciprocal shape and flow of teams attacking or defending. The less NIPPs the fewer scoring opportunities for opposition and more for own team. It affects all the others SOG, CKs, GOALS, ASSISTS, and time of possession. As individuals and teams play better and improve NIPPS decrease and the flow of team improves and increases all the components necessary for playing elite soccer and elevate teams overall competitiveness. Its basis premise is based on simplicity . Team players play and think simple , smart ,fast and relentless. Knowing what to do, creating angles , changing direction of attack, and linking with forethought trademark of world champs as well as any successful youth club. Try it out count the NIPPS at any level and see if as individual and team they evaluate level of play.
What specifically should be recorded?
MERCI MERCI Thanks dth , most interesting aspect of article was A.W. obsession with speed. Without ball control and soccer IQ good luck trying to increase soccer speed of play. Wished article delved into A.W. thoughts on how to increase formulating team shape attacking angles and the teams forethought patterns of movement in attack. After coaching youngsters many years ago found following a bit of basketballs Phil Jackson triangle 2 o’clock 10 o’clock hands positioning in reference to ball direction by teammates was most fun ever had in having kids out think , outflank and downright mystify their opponents in moving directly forward at goal. The other kids heads couldn’t swivel fast enough to keep up watching ball and defending a player. Once the kids control and basic passing skills improved and they played together long enough their mental anticipation timing clicked. Knowing when to reach two and 10 clock position in reference to the direction player possessing ball had and creating 45 degree angle of musically timed passing it was chest match even A.W. might admire. It really help develop the 7 speeds of soccer for whole team.
Identifying potentialy elite players may be a more appropriate title. A study done in Europe with professional coaches found that after observing a game the coaches could correctly identify specific actions only 45% of the time. Also research on elite development shows that elite athletes only share one common characteristic, they engage in over 10,000 hours of deliberate practice routines. So if you want to identify potential elite players you would need to start with youth players and look at their ability to; move with the ball, receive the ball, redirect the ball and move without the ball. All of these can be measured objectively, see CAPS program. However the major component is how many hours per day are they working on deliberate practice routines in addition to playing small sided games.
In the US we are focused far too much on results and very little on development. We need to find a way to encourage, recognize and reward young players who work on fundamental skills.
Just want to comment on the NIPPS idea, I see no use in this drill, it’s a nice idea in theory, but obviously central midfielders will always have the most “Nipps” even if they are excellent just because of how many touches they get. The position sets the numbers for this stat rather than the play in my opinion.
Who is this Rafa…we are going down to LA in July and would love to meet with or see this person train a team.
Honest to goodness, mathematical stats NEED to be used in soccer too.
Goals, assists, completed pass ratio, successful crosses, ratio of touches to minutes played, are all meaningful statistics. The ONLY confounding variable, of course, when comparing players is because they are in a TEAM and therefore good players maybe be brought down by poor teams and average players may be bouyed by excellent teams.
Once you control for the team the player is on, then you can compare players, and the stats are really meaningful. Would I take Lampard or Gerrard over Xavi? Yes, anyday, given the statistics.
However, I agree with the author’s thesis – good coaches are able to use their HUMAN BRAINS to evaluate players much better than a computer. But statistics can also contain the true picture, that the human brain can contort.
Hi Alex. I want stats too. I think they have their place.
It’s just that they tell half the story, many times less. And coaches/media in this country weigh it as if it told 90%.
You mention the obvious team bias which must be accounted for. That’s not easy. And who does that? And what skills must that judge possess?
You make it sound as if you can “control for the team the player is on”. You make it sound as if it’s a snap. It’s not. It’s an extreme minority that have an eye for it.
And so far there is no mathematical model I know of that captures who is better than who.
Furthermore, what if we’re not talking about the professional level? What if we’re talking about the youth or college levels where a preponderance of statistics are not available? What then?
“Would I take Lampard or Gerrard over Xavi? Yes, anyday, given the statistics.”
I think that one statement pretty much destroys your entire argument. I don’t want to be rude, but I don’t know what else to say. I had to scroll up 3 times before posting this reply because I still can’t believe someone actually typed that.
And yes, it would be much easier to compare players based off of position. Comparing goalies to strikers would obviously be ridiculous, but also central defenders to strikers, etc.